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Week 1 · 2026

What the model says about week 1

Every FBS game on the slate, with a projected margin from opponent-adjusted ratings — and, where a line exists, how far that sits from the betting market.

Tennessee's game

Furmanat#20 Tennessee

Final · SECN+

Tennessee by 39.5

Model

99%

To win

—

Market

Ranked teams this week

  • #24 Louisvillevs#9 Ole Miss

    Ole Miss by 5.0 (65%)

  • Ball Stateat#1 Ohio State

    Ohio State by 35.0 (99%)

  • Boise Stat#2 Oregon

    Oregon by 11.0 (80%)

  • Tennessee Stat#3 Georgia

    Georgia by 44.8 (99%)

  • Wisconsinvs#4 Notre Dame

    Notre Dame by 17.2 (91%)

  • Texas Stat#5 Texas

    Texas by 17.0 (90%)

  • North Texasat#6 Indiana

    Indiana by 15.3 (88%)

  • #7 MiamiatStanford

    Miami by 18.1 (92%)

The full slate

99 games, in kickoff order.

  • North CarolinavsTCU

    TCU by 6.8 (70%)

  • San José Stat#14 USC

    USC by 22.4 (96%)

  • NC StateatVirginia

    Virginia by 8.2 (74%)

  • Jax StateatN Dakota St

    N Dakota St by 13.1 (84%)

  • Sacramento StatE Michigan

    E Michigan by 3.8 (62%)

  • Hawai'iatStanford

    Stanford by 4.4 (63%)

  • New Mexico StatFlorida St

    Florida St by 14.6 (87%)

  • MemphisatUNLV

    Memphis by 0.5 (52%)

  • UMassatRutgers

    Rutgers by 10.2 (78%)

  • BethuneatUCF

    UCF by 34.3 (99%)

  • AkronatWake Forest

    Wake Forest by 18.3 (92%)

  • MerrimackatDelaware

    Delaware by 23.0 (96%)

  • West GeorgiaatKennesaw St

    Kennesaw St by 26.0 (98%)

  • UAlbanyatBuffalo

    Buffalo by 16.2 (89%)

  • AR-Pine Bluffat#25 Missouri

    Missouri by 36.7 (99%)

  • ColoradoatGeorgia Tech

    Georgia Tech by 5.6 (67%)

  • E IllinoisatMinnesota

    Minnesota by 32.0 (99%)

  • Idahoat#21 Utah

    Utah by 44.2 (99%)

  • UABatIllinois

    Illinois by 15.9 (89%)

  • San José StatE Michigan

    E Michigan by 0.7 (52%)

  • Indiana StatPurdue

    Purdue by 27.5 (98%)

  • NC A&TatGeorgia St

    Georgia St by 25.4 (97%)

  • UTEPat#10 Oklahoma

    Oklahoma by 23.1 (96%)

  • Long IslandatKansas

    Kansas by 29.4 (99%)

  • ToledoatMichigan St

    Michigan St by 0.4 (51%)

  • #7 MiamiatStanford

    Miami by 18.1 (92%)

  • Fresno Stat#14 USC

    USC by 11.6 (81%)

  • North Texasat#6 Indiana

    Indiana by 15.3 (88%)

  • East Carolinaat#13 Alabama

    Alabama by 18.3 (92%)

  • Oregon Stat#23 Houston

    Houston by 12.6 (83%)

  • CoastalatWest Virginia

    West Virginia by 9.7 (77%)

  • New HampshireatSyracuse

    Syracuse by 26.8 (98%)

  • OhioatNebraska

    Nebraska by 12.6 (83%)

  • LafayetteatUConn

    UConn by 29.4 (99%)

  • BryantatArmy

    Army by 30.0 (99%)

  • Tarleton StatBowling Green

    Bowling Green by 15.4 (88%)

  • LibertyatJames Madison

    James Madison by 12.5 (83%)

  • Ball Stateat#1 Ohio State

    Ohio State by 35.0 (99%)

  • Miami OHatPitt

    Pitt by 15.6 (88%)

  • Kent StateatSouth Carolina

    South Carolina by 17.8 (91%)

  • Youngstown StatKentucky

    Kentucky by 33.8 (99%)

  • SE MissouriatIowa State

    Iowa State by 33.9 (99%)

  • DuquesneatAir Force

    Air Force by 27.1 (98%)

  • Rhode IslandatTemple

    Temple by 26.1 (98%)

  • Tennessee Stat#3 Georgia

    Georgia by 44.8 (99%)

  • Boise Stat#2 Oregon

    Oregon by 11.0 (80%)

  • Texas Stat#5 Texas

    Texas by 17.0 (90%)

  • Marshallat#18 Penn State

    Penn State by 18.6 (92%)

  • Furmanat#20 Tennessee

    Tennessee by 39.5 (99%)

  • BaylorvsAuburn

    Auburn by 3.8 (61%)

  • Boston CollegeatCincinnati

    Cincinnati by 12.2 (83%)

  • TulaneatDuke

    Duke by 8.8 (75%)

  • The CitadelatCharlotte

    Charlotte by 14.1 (86%)

  • TowsonatNavy

    Navy by 29.7 (99%)

  • UT Rio GrandeatUTSA

    UTSA by 32.6 (99%)

  • FordhamatN Dakota St

    N Dakota St by 37.4 (99%)

  • MaineatApp State

    App State by 24.6 (97%)

  • Oklahoma StatTulsa

    Tulsa by 0.0 (50%)

  • N Illinoisat#22 Iowa

    Iowa by 26.4 (98%)

  • North AlabamaatArkansas

    Arkansas by 30.2 (99%)

  • Alcorn StatSouthern Miss

    Southern Miss by 23.3 (96%)

  • WyomingatColorado St

    Colorado St by 6.5 (69%)

  • Norfolk StatOld Dominion

    Old Dominion by 27.9 (98%)

  • Missouri Stat#8 Texas A&M

    Texas A&M by 20.5 (94%)

  • Abilene Chrstnat#12 Texas Tech

    Texas Tech by 42.6 (99%)

  • Austin PeayatVanderbilt

    Vanderbilt by 35.3 (99%)

  • NichollsatKansas St

    Kansas St by 35.3 (99%)

  • Idaho StatUtah State

    Utah State by 23.9 (97%)

  • Arkansas StatMemphis

    Memphis by 10.2 (78%)

  • Hou ChristianatRice

    Rice by 21.4 (95%)

  • FIUatSouth Florida

    South Florida by 13.7 (85%)

  • E KentuckyatJax State

    Jax State by 26.8 (98%)

  • Charleston SoatGA Southern

    GA Southern by 25.0 (97%)

  • SE LouisianaatSouth Alabama

    South Alabama by 23.8 (97%)

  • Sam HoustonatTroy

    Troy by 7.4 (72%)

  • W Michiganat#16 Michigan

    Michigan by 10.2 (78%)

  • UL MonroeatMississippi St

    Mississippi St by 25.9 (98%)

  • VMIatVirginia Tech

    Virginia Tech by 33.1 (99%)

  • N'Western StatLouisiana Tech

    Louisiana Tech by 28.6 (99%)

  • FAUatFlorida

    Florida by 16.3 (89%)

  • Murray StatMTSU

    MTSU by 20.6 (94%)

  • Utah Techat#14 BYU

    BYU by 40.5 (99%)

  • HamptonatMaryland

    Maryland by 30.7 (99%)

  • S Dakota StatNorthwestern

    Northwestern by 36.3 (99%)

  • LamaratLouisiana

    Louisiana by 26.9 (98%)

  • MercyhurstatNew Mexico St

    New Mexico St by 21.8 (95%)

  • N ArizonaatArizona

    Arizona by 34.6 (99%)

  • Portland StatSan Diego St

    San Diego St by 29.2 (99%)

  • Clemsonat#11 LSU

    LSU by 10.4 (79%)

  • Morgan StatArizona St

    Arizona St by 31.5 (99%)

  • UNLVatHawai'i

    UNLV by 2.4 (57%)

  • C MichiganatNew Mexico

    New Mexico by 15.4 (88%)

  • Miss Valley StatSacramento St

    Sacramento St by 17.9 (92%)

  • UCLAatCalifornia

    UCLA by 6.8 (70%)

  • Western KYatNevada

    Nevada by 2.1 (56%)

  • Washington Stat#17 Washington

    Washington by 8.9 (75%)

  • Wisconsinvs#4 Notre Dame

    Notre Dame by 17.2 (91%)

  • #24 Louisvillevs#9 Ole Miss

    Ole Miss by 5.0 (65%)

  • #19 SMUatFlorida St

    Florida St by 1.4 (54%)

How this works

Ratings are opponent-adjusted from 2026 results and converted to a margin with a home-field term. Probabilities use a spread fitted on out-of-sample predictions, the same conversion used everywhere else on this site.

Games involving a team outside the FBS pool use the ratings engine's FCS constant rather than a real rating, and are excluded from the disagreement list — a large gap there reflects not knowing the opponent, not a genuine difference of opinion.

Lines come from ESPN's public feed and move through the week. Voluntary Takes is an independent fan site and takes no position on any wager.