Week 1 · 2026
What the model says about week 1
Every FBS game on the slate, with a projected margin from opponent-adjusted ratings — and, where a line exists, how far that sits from the betting market.
Tennessee's game
Furmanat
#20 Tennessee
Final · SECN+
Tennessee by 39.5
Model
99%
To win
—
Market
Ranked teams this week
#24 Louisvillevs
#9 Ole MissOle Miss by 5.0 (65%)
Ball Stateat
#1 Ohio StateOhio State by 35.0 (99%)
Boise Stat
#2 OregonOregon by 11.0 (80%)
Tennessee Stat
#3 GeorgiaGeorgia by 44.8 (99%)
Wisconsinvs
#4 Notre DameNotre Dame by 17.2 (91%)
Texas Stat
#5 TexasTexas by 17.0 (90%)
North Texasat
#6 IndianaIndiana by 15.3 (88%)
#7 Miamiat
StanfordMiami by 18.1 (92%)
The full slate
99 games, in kickoff order.
North Carolinavs
TCUTCU by 6.8 (70%)
San José Stat
#14 USCUSC by 22.4 (96%)
NC Stateat
VirginiaVirginia by 8.2 (74%)
Jax Stateat
N Dakota StN Dakota St by 13.1 (84%)
Sacramento Stat
E MichiganE Michigan by 3.8 (62%)
Hawai'iat
StanfordStanford by 4.4 (63%)
New Mexico Stat
Florida StFlorida St by 14.6 (87%)
Memphisat
UNLVMemphis by 0.5 (52%)
UMassat
RutgersRutgers by 10.2 (78%)
Bethuneat
UCFUCF by 34.3 (99%)
Akronat
Wake ForestWake Forest by 18.3 (92%)
Merrimackat
DelawareDelaware by 23.0 (96%)
West Georgiaat
Kennesaw StKennesaw St by 26.0 (98%)
UAlbanyat
BuffaloBuffalo by 16.2 (89%)
AR-Pine Bluffat
#25 MissouriMissouri by 36.7 (99%)
Coloradoat
Georgia TechGeorgia Tech by 5.6 (67%)
E Illinoisat
MinnesotaMinnesota by 32.0 (99%)
Idahoat
#21 UtahUtah by 44.2 (99%)
UABat
IllinoisIllinois by 15.9 (89%)
San José Stat
E MichiganE Michigan by 0.7 (52%)
Indiana Stat
PurduePurdue by 27.5 (98%)
NC A&Tat
Georgia StGeorgia St by 25.4 (97%)
UTEPat
#10 OklahomaOklahoma by 23.1 (96%)
Long Islandat
KansasKansas by 29.4 (99%)
Toledoat
Michigan StMichigan St by 0.4 (51%)
#7 Miamiat
StanfordMiami by 18.1 (92%)
Fresno Stat
#14 USCUSC by 11.6 (81%)
North Texasat
#6 IndianaIndiana by 15.3 (88%)
East Carolinaat
#13 AlabamaAlabama by 18.3 (92%)
Oregon Stat
#23 HoustonHouston by 12.6 (83%)
Coastalat
West VirginiaWest Virginia by 9.7 (77%)
New Hampshireat
SyracuseSyracuse by 26.8 (98%)
Ohioat
NebraskaNebraska by 12.6 (83%)
Lafayetteat
UConnUConn by 29.4 (99%)
Bryantat
ArmyArmy by 30.0 (99%)
Tarleton Stat
Bowling GreenBowling Green by 15.4 (88%)
Libertyat
James MadisonJames Madison by 12.5 (83%)
Ball Stateat
#1 Ohio StateOhio State by 35.0 (99%)
Miami OHat
PittPitt by 15.6 (88%)
Kent Stateat
South CarolinaSouth Carolina by 17.8 (91%)
Youngstown Stat
KentuckyKentucky by 33.8 (99%)
SE Missouriat
Iowa StateIowa State by 33.9 (99%)
Duquesneat
Air ForceAir Force by 27.1 (98%)
Rhode Islandat
TempleTemple by 26.1 (98%)
Tennessee Stat
#3 GeorgiaGeorgia by 44.8 (99%)
Boise Stat
#2 OregonOregon by 11.0 (80%)
Texas Stat
#5 TexasTexas by 17.0 (90%)
Marshallat
#18 Penn StatePenn State by 18.6 (92%)
Furmanat
#20 TennesseeTennessee by 39.5 (99%)
Baylorvs
AuburnAuburn by 3.8 (61%)
Boston Collegeat
CincinnatiCincinnati by 12.2 (83%)
Tulaneat
DukeDuke by 8.8 (75%)
The Citadelat
CharlotteCharlotte by 14.1 (86%)
Towsonat
NavyNavy by 29.7 (99%)
UT Rio Grandeat
UTSAUTSA by 32.6 (99%)
Fordhamat
N Dakota StN Dakota St by 37.4 (99%)
Maineat
App StateApp State by 24.6 (97%)
Oklahoma Stat
TulsaTulsa by 0.0 (50%)
N Illinoisat
#22 IowaIowa by 26.4 (98%)
North Alabamaat
ArkansasArkansas by 30.2 (99%)
Alcorn Stat
Southern MissSouthern Miss by 23.3 (96%)
Wyomingat
Colorado StColorado St by 6.5 (69%)
Norfolk Stat
Old DominionOld Dominion by 27.9 (98%)
Missouri Stat
#8 Texas A&MTexas A&M by 20.5 (94%)
Abilene Chrstnat
#12 Texas TechTexas Tech by 42.6 (99%)
Austin Peayat
VanderbiltVanderbilt by 35.3 (99%)
Nichollsat
Kansas StKansas St by 35.3 (99%)
Idaho Stat
Utah StateUtah State by 23.9 (97%)
Arkansas Stat
MemphisMemphis by 10.2 (78%)
Hou Christianat
RiceRice by 21.4 (95%)
FIUat
South FloridaSouth Florida by 13.7 (85%)
E Kentuckyat
Jax StateJax State by 26.8 (98%)
Charleston Soat
GA SouthernGA Southern by 25.0 (97%)
SE Louisianaat
South AlabamaSouth Alabama by 23.8 (97%)
Sam Houstonat
TroyTroy by 7.4 (72%)
W Michiganat
#16 MichiganMichigan by 10.2 (78%)
UL Monroeat
Mississippi StMississippi St by 25.9 (98%)
VMIat
Virginia TechVirginia Tech by 33.1 (99%)
N'Western Stat
Louisiana TechLouisiana Tech by 28.6 (99%)
FAUat
FloridaFlorida by 16.3 (89%)
Murray Stat
MTSUMTSU by 20.6 (94%)
Utah Techat
#14 BYUBYU by 40.5 (99%)
Hamptonat
MarylandMaryland by 30.7 (99%)
S Dakota Stat
NorthwesternNorthwestern by 36.3 (99%)
Lamarat
LouisianaLouisiana by 26.9 (98%)
Mercyhurstat
New Mexico StNew Mexico St by 21.8 (95%)
N Arizonaat
ArizonaArizona by 34.6 (99%)
Portland Stat
San Diego StSan Diego St by 29.2 (99%)
Clemsonat
#11 LSULSU by 10.4 (79%)
Morgan Stat
Arizona StArizona St by 31.5 (99%)
UNLVat
Hawai'iUNLV by 2.4 (57%)
C Michiganat
New MexicoNew Mexico by 15.4 (88%)
Miss Valley Stat
Sacramento StSacramento St by 17.9 (92%)
UCLAat
CaliforniaUCLA by 6.8 (70%)
Western KYat
NevadaNevada by 2.1 (56%)
Washington Stat
#17 WashingtonWashington by 8.9 (75%)
Wisconsinvs
#4 Notre DameNotre Dame by 17.2 (91%)
#24 Louisvillevs
#9 Ole MissOle Miss by 5.0 (65%)
#19 SMUat
Florida StFlorida St by 1.4 (54%)
How this works
Ratings are opponent-adjusted from 2026 results and converted to a margin with a home-field term. Probabilities use a spread fitted on out-of-sample predictions, the same conversion used everywhere else on this site.
Games involving a team outside the FBS pool use the ratings engine's FCS constant rather than a real rating, and are excluded from the disagreement list — a large gap there reflects not knowing the opponent, not a genuine difference of opinion.
Lines come from ESPN's public feed and move through the week. Voluntary Takes is an independent fan site and takes no position on any wager.