Week 4 · 2026
What the model says about week 4
Every FBS game on the slate, with a projected margin from opponent-adjusted ratings — and, where a line exists, how far that sits from the betting market.
Tennessee's game
#1 Texasat
#14 Tennessee
Final · ABC
Texas by 2.9
Model
59%
To win
—
Market
Ranked teams this week
#1 Texasat
#14 TennesseeTexas by 2.9 (59%)
#4 Ole Missat
#21 FloridaFlorida by 2.1 (56%)
#23 Texas A&Mat
#10 LSULSU by 5.4 (66%)
#20 Oregonat
#12 USCUSC by 0.1 (50%)
#17 Iowaat
#18 MichiganMichigan by 0.9 (53%)
#19 Missouriat
#24 Mississippi StMississippi St by 4.1 (62%)
Oklahomaat
#2 GeorgiaGeorgia by 9.3 (76%)
#3 Notre Dameat
PurdueNotre Dame by 20.7 (94%)
The full slate
71 games, in kickoff order.
Libertyat
CoastalLiberty by 3.6 (61%)
Armyat
TempleArmy by 1.4 (54%)
Howardat
RutgersRutgers by 28.5 (99%)
Navyat
UABNavy by 5.4 (66%)
Northwesternat
#5 IndianaIndiana by 13.7 (85%)
Clemsonat
CaliforniaClemson by 4.0 (62%)
#1 Texasat
#14 TennesseeTexas by 2.9 (59%)
Illinoisat
#7 Ohio StateOhio State by 16.0 (89%)
Sam Houstonat
#11 Texas TechTexas Tech by 25.9 (98%)
Wake Forestat
#16 LouisvilleLouisville by 4.1 (62%)
Coloradoat
BaylorBaylor by 9.3 (76%)
Bucknellat
PittPitt by 40.4 (99%)
Virginia Techat
Boston CollegeVirginia Tech by 6.5 (69%)
San Diego Stat
ToledoToledo by 7.7 (72%)
Colorado Stat
UTSAUTSA by 11.1 (80%)
UNLVat
AkronUNLV by 7.9 (73%)
Ball Stateat
Kent StateKent State by 5.0 (65%)
South Alabamaat
KentuckyKentucky by 12.5 (83%)
Lindenwoodat
E MichiganE Michigan by 19.2 (93%)
UCLAat
MarylandUCLA by 4.5 (64%)
#3 Notre Dameat
PurdueNotre Dame by 20.7 (94%)
N Illinoisat
Georgia StGeorgia St by 13.0 (84%)
C Arkansasat
Florida StFlorida St by 33.9 (99%)
Hawai'iat
WyomingHawai'i by 1.2 (54%)
Oklahomaat
#2 GeorgiaGeorgia by 9.3 (76%)
#4 Ole Missat
#21 FloridaFlorida by 2.1 (56%)
#15 Utahat
Iowa StateUtah by 7.7 (72%)
#17 Iowaat
#18 MichiganMichigan by 0.9 (53%)
TCUat
UCFUCF by 1.7 (55%)
William & Maryat
DukeDuke by 37.0 (99%)
Boise Stat
W MichiganBoise St by 2.7 (58%)
UConnat
Miami OHMiami OH by 0.3 (51%)
New Mexicoat
New Mexico StNew Mexico by 10.0 (78%)
Robert Morrisat
BuffaloBuffalo by 16.2 (89%)
Stonehillat
OhioOhio by 26.8 (98%)
Gardner-Webbat
MarshallMarshall by 21.9 (95%)
#25 Houstonat
GA SouthernHouston by 8.8 (75%)
NC Centralat
East CarolinaEast Carolina by 30.6 (99%)
Vanderbiltat
AuburnAuburn by 4.1 (62%)
Wisconsinat
#13 Penn StatePenn State by 6.9 (70%)
Nebraskaat
Michigan StNebraska by 2.1 (56%)
South Floridaat
Bowling GreenSouth Florida by 17.3 (91%)
Delawareat
VirginiaVirginia by 17.9 (92%)
Incarnate Wordat
Texas StTexas St by 30.4 (99%)
Long Islandat
FIUFIU by 24.0 (97%)
James Madisonat
Old DominionJames Madison by 8.9 (75%)
C Michiganat
#6 MiamiMiami by 27.3 (98%)
Louisianaat
CharlotteLouisiana by 10.3 (79%)
Kansas Stat
CincinnatiCincinnati by 1.0 (53%)
Oklahoma Stat
West VirginiaWest Virginia by 3.8 (61%)
Southern Missat
TulaneTulane by 9.9 (78%)
Kennesaw Stat
Arkansas StArkansas St by 0.3 (51%)
Mercyhurstat
Western KYWestern KY by 20.8 (95%)
MTSUat
Jax StateJax State by 8.6 (75%)
South Carolinaat
#8 AlabamaAlabama by 14.9 (87%)
#23 Texas A&Mat
#10 LSULSU by 5.4 (66%)
#20 Oregonat
#12 USCUSC by 0.1 (50%)
Arizonaat
Washington StArizona by 4.4 (63%)
Troyat
Utah StateUtah State by 2.2 (57%)
Hou Christianat
North TexasNorth Texas by 34.8 (99%)
App Stateat
NC StateNC State by 10.6 (79%)
#19 Missouriat
#24 Mississippi StMississippi St by 4.1 (62%)
Tulsaat
ArkansasArkansas by 6.2 (68%)
FAUat
UL MonroeFAU by 9.0 (76%)
Missouri Stat
#22 SMUSMU by 15.5 (88%)
Oregon Stat
UTEPOregon St by 6.4 (69%)
UMassat
Sacramento StUMass by 0.4 (51%)
Riceat
Fresno StFresno St by 12.9 (84%)
Georgia Techat
StanfordGeorgia Tech by 1.4 (54%)
Air Forceat
NevadaAir Force by 4.2 (63%)
Minnesotaat
WashingtonWashington by 4.7 (64%)
How this works
Ratings are opponent-adjusted from 2026 results and converted to a margin with a home-field term. Probabilities use a spread fitted on out-of-sample predictions, the same conversion used everywhere else on this site.
Games involving a team outside the FBS pool use the ratings engine's FCS constant rather than a real rating, and are excluded from the disagreement list — a large gap there reflects not knowing the opponent, not a genuine difference of opinion.
Lines come from ESPN's public feed and move through the week. Voluntary Takes is an independent fan site and takes no position on any wager.