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Week 4 · 2026

What the model says about week 4

Every FBS game on the slate, with a projected margin from opponent-adjusted ratings — and, where a line exists, how far that sits from the betting market.

Tennessee's game

#1 Texasat#14 Tennessee

Final · ABC

Texas by 2.9

Model

59%

To win

—

Market

Ranked teams this week

  • #1 Texasat#14 Tennessee

    Texas by 2.9 (59%)

  • #4 Ole Missat#21 Florida

    Florida by 2.1 (56%)

  • #23 Texas A&Mat#10 LSU

    LSU by 5.4 (66%)

  • #20 Oregonat#12 USC

    USC by 0.1 (50%)

  • #17 Iowaat#18 Michigan

    Michigan by 0.9 (53%)

  • #19 Missouriat#24 Mississippi St

    Mississippi St by 4.1 (62%)

  • Oklahomaat#2 Georgia

    Georgia by 9.3 (76%)

  • #3 Notre DameatPurdue

    Notre Dame by 20.7 (94%)

The full slate

71 games, in kickoff order.

  • LibertyatCoastal

    Liberty by 3.6 (61%)

  • ArmyatTemple

    Army by 1.4 (54%)

  • HowardatRutgers

    Rutgers by 28.5 (99%)

  • NavyatUAB

    Navy by 5.4 (66%)

  • Northwesternat#5 Indiana

    Indiana by 13.7 (85%)

  • ClemsonatCalifornia

    Clemson by 4.0 (62%)

  • #1 Texasat#14 Tennessee

    Texas by 2.9 (59%)

  • Illinoisat#7 Ohio State

    Ohio State by 16.0 (89%)

  • Sam Houstonat#11 Texas Tech

    Texas Tech by 25.9 (98%)

  • Wake Forestat#16 Louisville

    Louisville by 4.1 (62%)

  • ColoradoatBaylor

    Baylor by 9.3 (76%)

  • BucknellatPitt

    Pitt by 40.4 (99%)

  • Virginia TechatBoston College

    Virginia Tech by 6.5 (69%)

  • San Diego StatToledo

    Toledo by 7.7 (72%)

  • Colorado StatUTSA

    UTSA by 11.1 (80%)

  • UNLVatAkron

    UNLV by 7.9 (73%)

  • Ball StateatKent State

    Kent State by 5.0 (65%)

  • South AlabamaatKentucky

    Kentucky by 12.5 (83%)

  • LindenwoodatE Michigan

    E Michigan by 19.2 (93%)

  • UCLAatMaryland

    UCLA by 4.5 (64%)

  • #3 Notre DameatPurdue

    Notre Dame by 20.7 (94%)

  • N IllinoisatGeorgia St

    Georgia St by 13.0 (84%)

  • C ArkansasatFlorida St

    Florida St by 33.9 (99%)

  • Hawai'iatWyoming

    Hawai'i by 1.2 (54%)

  • Oklahomaat#2 Georgia

    Georgia by 9.3 (76%)

  • #4 Ole Missat#21 Florida

    Florida by 2.1 (56%)

  • #15 UtahatIowa State

    Utah by 7.7 (72%)

  • #17 Iowaat#18 Michigan

    Michigan by 0.9 (53%)

  • TCUatUCF

    UCF by 1.7 (55%)

  • William & MaryatDuke

    Duke by 37.0 (99%)

  • Boise StatW Michigan

    Boise St by 2.7 (58%)

  • UConnatMiami OH

    Miami OH by 0.3 (51%)

  • New MexicoatNew Mexico St

    New Mexico by 10.0 (78%)

  • Robert MorrisatBuffalo

    Buffalo by 16.2 (89%)

  • StonehillatOhio

    Ohio by 26.8 (98%)

  • Gardner-WebbatMarshall

    Marshall by 21.9 (95%)

  • #25 HoustonatGA Southern

    Houston by 8.8 (75%)

  • NC CentralatEast Carolina

    East Carolina by 30.6 (99%)

  • VanderbiltatAuburn

    Auburn by 4.1 (62%)

  • Wisconsinat#13 Penn State

    Penn State by 6.9 (70%)

  • NebraskaatMichigan St

    Nebraska by 2.1 (56%)

  • South FloridaatBowling Green

    South Florida by 17.3 (91%)

  • DelawareatVirginia

    Virginia by 17.9 (92%)

  • Incarnate WordatTexas St

    Texas St by 30.4 (99%)

  • Long IslandatFIU

    FIU by 24.0 (97%)

  • James MadisonatOld Dominion

    James Madison by 8.9 (75%)

  • C Michiganat#6 Miami

    Miami by 27.3 (98%)

  • LouisianaatCharlotte

    Louisiana by 10.3 (79%)

  • Kansas StatCincinnati

    Cincinnati by 1.0 (53%)

  • Oklahoma StatWest Virginia

    West Virginia by 3.8 (61%)

  • Southern MissatTulane

    Tulane by 9.9 (78%)

  • Kennesaw StatArkansas St

    Arkansas St by 0.3 (51%)

  • MercyhurstatWestern KY

    Western KY by 20.8 (95%)

  • MTSUatJax State

    Jax State by 8.6 (75%)

  • South Carolinaat#8 Alabama

    Alabama by 14.9 (87%)

  • #23 Texas A&Mat#10 LSU

    LSU by 5.4 (66%)

  • #20 Oregonat#12 USC

    USC by 0.1 (50%)

  • ArizonaatWashington St

    Arizona by 4.4 (63%)

  • TroyatUtah State

    Utah State by 2.2 (57%)

  • Hou ChristianatNorth Texas

    North Texas by 34.8 (99%)

  • App StateatNC State

    NC State by 10.6 (79%)

  • #19 Missouriat#24 Mississippi St

    Mississippi St by 4.1 (62%)

  • TulsaatArkansas

    Arkansas by 6.2 (68%)

  • FAUatUL Monroe

    FAU by 9.0 (76%)

  • Missouri Stat#22 SMU

    SMU by 15.5 (88%)

  • Oregon StatUTEP

    Oregon St by 6.4 (69%)

  • UMassatSacramento St

    UMass by 0.4 (51%)

  • RiceatFresno St

    Fresno St by 12.9 (84%)

  • Georgia TechatStanford

    Georgia Tech by 1.4 (54%)

  • Air ForceatNevada

    Air Force by 4.2 (63%)

  • MinnesotaatWashington

    Washington by 4.7 (64%)

How this works

Ratings are opponent-adjusted from 2026 results and converted to a margin with a home-field term. Probabilities use a spread fitted on out-of-sample predictions, the same conversion used everywhere else on this site.

Games involving a team outside the FBS pool use the ratings engine's FCS constant rather than a real rating, and are excluded from the disagreement list — a large gap there reflects not knowing the opponent, not a genuine difference of opinion.

Lines come from ESPN's public feed and move through the week. Voluntary Takes is an independent fan site and takes no position on any wager.