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Week 12 · 2026

What the model says about week 12

Every FBS game on the slate, with a projected margin from opponent-adjusted ratings — and, where a line exists, how far that sits from the betting market.

Tennessee's game

#10 LSUat#15 Tennessee

TBD

Tennessee by 0.9

Model

53%

To win

—

Market

Ranked teams this week

  • #24 SMUat#3 Notre Dame

    Notre Dame by 18.6 (92%)

  • #10 LSUat#15 Tennessee

    Tennessee by 0.9 (53%)

  • Arkansasat#1 Texas

    Texas by 18.5 (92%)

  • #2 GeorgiaatSouth Carolina

    Georgia by 8.0 (73%)

  • Virginia Techat#4 Miami

    Miami by 17.8 (91%)

  • #5 Ohio StateatNebraska

    Ohio State by 7.9 (73%)

  • Chattanoogaat#6 Alabama

    Alabama by 49.6 (99%)

  • #7 IndianaatWashington

    Indiana by 10.9 (80%)

The full slate

70 games, in kickoff order.

  • Ball StateatOhio

    Ohio by 12.8 (84%)

  • E MichiganatW Michigan

    W Michigan by 8.5 (74%)

  • Miami OHatKent State

    Miami OH by 3.0 (59%)

  • AkronatUMass

    UMass by 4.2 (63%)

  • C MichiganatBuffalo

    C Michigan by 3.9 (62%)

  • RiceatTemple

    Temple by 7.8 (73%)

  • Iowa StateatUCF

    UCF by 2.9 (59%)

  • ClemsonatDuke

    Duke by 5.4 (66%)

  • Bowling GreenatToledo

    Toledo by 19.9 (94%)

  • #13 OregonatMichigan St

    Oregon by 9.0 (76%)

  • UTEPatAir Force

    Air Force by 13.1 (84%)

  • Arkansasat#1 Texas

    Texas by 18.5 (92%)

  • #2 GeorgiaatSouth Carolina

    Georgia by 8.0 (73%)

  • Virginia Techat#4 Miami

    Miami by 17.8 (91%)

  • #5 Ohio StateatNebraska

    Ohio State by 7.9 (73%)

  • #7 IndianaatWashington

    Indiana by 10.9 (80%)

  • #8 BYUatKansas

    BYU by 6.1 (68%)

  • #10 LSUat#15 Tennessee

    Tennessee by 0.9 (53%)

  • #11 Texas TechatBaylor

    Texas Tech by 5.9 (67%)

  • #12 UtahatTCU

    Utah by 6.9 (70%)

  • Kentuckyat#14 Missouri

    Missouri by 7.6 (72%)

  • Vanderbiltat#16 Florida

    Florida by 6.3 (69%)

  • #18 Oklahoma StatArizona St

    Arizona St by 3.5 (61%)

  • Marylandat#19 USC

    USC by 12.8 (84%)

  • #20 IowaatIllinois

    Iowa by 1.7 (55%)

  • #21 UCLAatMichigan

    Michigan by 0.8 (53%)

  • #22 HoustonatWest Virginia

    Houston by 5.7 (67%)

  • #25 PittatLouisville

    Pitt by 2.1 (56%)

  • Texas A&MatOklahoma

    Oklahoma by 0.2 (51%)

  • ArizonaatKansas St

    Kansas St by 0.6 (52%)

  • ColoradoatCincinnati

    Cincinnati by 7.8 (73%)

  • NC StateatFlorida St

    Florida St by 7.3 (71%)

  • North CarolinaatVirginia

    Virginia by 8.9 (75%)

  • StanfordatCalifornia

    California by 6.6 (69%)

  • SyracuseatBoston College

    Syracuse by 1.3 (54%)

  • Wake ForestatGeorgia Tech

    Wake Forest by 4.8 (64%)

  • NorthwesternatMinnesota

    Northwestern by 1.6 (55%)

  • RutgersatPenn State

    Penn State by 14.8 (87%)

  • WisconsinatPurdue

    Wisconsin by 4.8 (64%)

  • CharlotteatTulsa

    Tulsa by 16.6 (90%)

  • South FloridaatFAU

    South Florida by 4.9 (65%)

  • North TexasatTulane

    North Texas by 2.3 (57%)

  • UTSAatUAB

    UTSA by 8.3 (74%)

  • Hawai'iatNevada

    Hawai'i by 0.5 (51%)

  • UL MonroeatApp State

    App State by 12.5 (83%)

  • Arkansas StatLouisiana Tech

    Louisiana Tech by 6.8 (70%)

  • CoastalatLouisiana

    Louisiana by 6.4 (69%)

  • GA SouthernatTroy

    Troy by 3.0 (59%)

  • Georgia StatMarshall

    Georgia St by 4.1 (62%)

  • South AlabamaatSouthern Miss

    South Alabama by 0.4 (51%)

  • Woffordat#9 Ole Miss

    Ole Miss by 39.2 (99%)

  • East CarolinaatArmy

    Army by 1.9 (56%)

  • MemphisatNavy

    Memphis by 1.6 (55%)

  • Tennessee Techat#17 Mississippi St

    Mississippi St by 37.9 (99%)

  • Western KYatLiberty

    Liberty by 10.4 (79%)

  • Chattanoogaat#6 Alabama

    Alabama by 49.6 (99%)

  • Missouri StatJax State

    Jax State by 7.0 (71%)

  • MTSUatSam Houston

    Sam Houston by 4.0 (62%)

  • DelawareatNew Mexico St

    New Mexico St by 2.9 (59%)

  • FIUatKennesaw St

    Kennesaw St by 4.8 (64%)

  • SamfordatAuburn

    Auburn by 36.0 (99%)

  • Old DominionatUConn

    UConn by 4.8 (64%)

  • N IllinoisatN Dakota St

    N Dakota St by 24.9 (97%)

  • Washington StatTexas St

    Texas St by 5.7 (67%)

  • UNLVatSan José St

    UNLV by 4.5 (64%)

  • #24 SMUat#3 Notre Dame

    Notre Dame by 18.6 (92%)

  • Colorado StatFresno St

    Fresno St by 13.1 (84%)

  • New MexicoatWyoming

    New Mexico by 14.2 (86%)

  • San Diego Stat#23 Boise St

    Boise St by 8.4 (74%)

  • Utah StateatOregon St

    Oregon St by 7.8 (72%)

How this works

Ratings are opponent-adjusted from 2026 results and converted to a margin with a home-field term. Probabilities use a spread fitted on out-of-sample predictions, the same conversion used everywhere else on this site.

Games involving a team outside the FBS pool use the ratings engine's FCS constant rather than a real rating, and are excluded from the disagreement list — a large gap there reflects not knowing the opponent, not a genuine difference of opinion.

Lines come from ESPN's public feed and move through the week. Voluntary Takes is an independent fan site and takes no position on any wager.