Week 12 · 2026
What the model says about week 12
Every FBS game on the slate, with a projected margin from opponent-adjusted ratings — and, where a line exists, how far that sits from the betting market.
Tennessee's game
#10 LSUat
#15 Tennessee
TBD
Tennessee by 0.9
Model
53%
To win
—
Market
Ranked teams this week
#24 SMUat
#3 Notre DameNotre Dame by 18.6 (92%)
#10 LSUat
#15 TennesseeTennessee by 0.9 (53%)
Arkansasat
#1 TexasTexas by 18.5 (92%)
#2 Georgiaat
South CarolinaGeorgia by 8.0 (73%)
Virginia Techat
#4 MiamiMiami by 17.8 (91%)
#5 Ohio Stateat
NebraskaOhio State by 7.9 (73%)
Chattanoogaat
#6 AlabamaAlabama by 49.6 (99%)
#7 Indianaat
WashingtonIndiana by 10.9 (80%)
The full slate
70 games, in kickoff order.
Ball Stateat
OhioOhio by 12.8 (84%)
E Michiganat
W MichiganW Michigan by 8.5 (74%)
Miami OHat
Kent StateMiami OH by 3.0 (59%)
Akronat
UMassUMass by 4.2 (63%)
C Michiganat
BuffaloC Michigan by 3.9 (62%)
Riceat
TempleTemple by 7.8 (73%)
Iowa Stateat
UCFUCF by 2.9 (59%)
Clemsonat
DukeDuke by 5.4 (66%)
Bowling Greenat
ToledoToledo by 19.9 (94%)
#13 Oregonat
Michigan StOregon by 9.0 (76%)
UTEPat
Air ForceAir Force by 13.1 (84%)
Arkansasat
#1 TexasTexas by 18.5 (92%)
#2 Georgiaat
South CarolinaGeorgia by 8.0 (73%)
Virginia Techat
#4 MiamiMiami by 17.8 (91%)
#5 Ohio Stateat
NebraskaOhio State by 7.9 (73%)
#7 Indianaat
WashingtonIndiana by 10.9 (80%)
#8 BYUat
KansasBYU by 6.1 (68%)
#10 LSUat
#15 TennesseeTennessee by 0.9 (53%)
#11 Texas Techat
BaylorTexas Tech by 5.9 (67%)
#12 Utahat
TCUUtah by 6.9 (70%)
Kentuckyat
#14 MissouriMissouri by 7.6 (72%)
Vanderbiltat
#16 FloridaFlorida by 6.3 (69%)
#18 Oklahoma Stat
Arizona StArizona St by 3.5 (61%)
Marylandat
#19 USCUSC by 12.8 (84%)
#20 Iowaat
IllinoisIowa by 1.7 (55%)
#21 UCLAat
MichiganMichigan by 0.8 (53%)
#22 Houstonat
West VirginiaHouston by 5.7 (67%)
#25 Pittat
LouisvillePitt by 2.1 (56%)
Texas A&Mat
OklahomaOklahoma by 0.2 (51%)
Arizonaat
Kansas StKansas St by 0.6 (52%)
Coloradoat
CincinnatiCincinnati by 7.8 (73%)
NC Stateat
Florida StFlorida St by 7.3 (71%)
North Carolinaat
VirginiaVirginia by 8.9 (75%)
Stanfordat
CaliforniaCalifornia by 6.6 (69%)
Syracuseat
Boston CollegeSyracuse by 1.3 (54%)
Wake Forestat
Georgia TechWake Forest by 4.8 (64%)
Northwesternat
MinnesotaNorthwestern by 1.6 (55%)
Rutgersat
Penn StatePenn State by 14.8 (87%)
Wisconsinat
PurdueWisconsin by 4.8 (64%)
Charlotteat
TulsaTulsa by 16.6 (90%)
South Floridaat
FAUSouth Florida by 4.9 (65%)
North Texasat
TulaneNorth Texas by 2.3 (57%)
UTSAat
UABUTSA by 8.3 (74%)
Hawai'iat
NevadaHawai'i by 0.5 (51%)
UL Monroeat
App StateApp State by 12.5 (83%)
Arkansas Stat
Louisiana TechLouisiana Tech by 6.8 (70%)
Coastalat
LouisianaLouisiana by 6.4 (69%)
GA Southernat
TroyTroy by 3.0 (59%)
Georgia Stat
MarshallGeorgia St by 4.1 (62%)
South Alabamaat
Southern MissSouth Alabama by 0.4 (51%)
Woffordat
#9 Ole MissOle Miss by 39.2 (99%)
East Carolinaat
ArmyArmy by 1.9 (56%)
Memphisat
NavyMemphis by 1.6 (55%)
Tennessee Techat
#17 Mississippi StMississippi St by 37.9 (99%)
Western KYat
LibertyLiberty by 10.4 (79%)
Chattanoogaat
#6 AlabamaAlabama by 49.6 (99%)
Missouri Stat
Jax StateJax State by 7.0 (71%)
MTSUat
Sam HoustonSam Houston by 4.0 (62%)
Delawareat
New Mexico StNew Mexico St by 2.9 (59%)
FIUat
Kennesaw StKennesaw St by 4.8 (64%)
Samfordat
AuburnAuburn by 36.0 (99%)
Old Dominionat
UConnUConn by 4.8 (64%)
N Illinoisat
N Dakota StN Dakota St by 24.9 (97%)
Washington Stat
Texas StTexas St by 5.7 (67%)
UNLVat
San José StUNLV by 4.5 (64%)
#24 SMUat
#3 Notre DameNotre Dame by 18.6 (92%)
Colorado Stat
Fresno StFresno St by 13.1 (84%)
New Mexicoat
WyomingNew Mexico by 14.2 (86%)
San Diego Stat
#23 Boise StBoise St by 8.4 (74%)
Utah Stateat
Oregon StOregon St by 7.8 (72%)
How this works
Ratings are opponent-adjusted from 2026 results and converted to a margin with a home-field term. Probabilities use a spread fitted on out-of-sample predictions, the same conversion used everywhere else on this site.
Games involving a team outside the FBS pool use the ratings engine's FCS constant rather than a real rating, and are excluded from the disagreement list — a large gap there reflects not knowing the opponent, not a genuine difference of opinion.
Lines come from ESPN's public feed and move through the week. Voluntary Takes is an independent fan site and takes no position on any wager.