Week 5 · 2026

What the model says about week 5

Every FBS game on the slate, with a projected margin from opponent-adjusted ratings — and, where a line exists, how far that sits from the betting market.

Tennessee's game

Auburnat#17 Tennessee

Final · ESPN

Tennessee by 6.4

Model

69%

To win

—

Market

Ranked teams this week

#5 Ohio Stateat#14 Iowa
Ohio State by 8.7 (75%)
#7 Alabamaat#16 Mississippi St
Alabama by 9.3 (76%)
#8 Floridaat#25 Missouri
Missouri by 4.9 (65%)
Vanderbiltat#2 Georgia
Georgia by 13.5 (85%)
#3 Notre DameatNorth Carolina
Notre Dame by 19.2 (93%)
#4 MiamiatClemson
Miami by 11.8 (82%)
#6 IndianaatRutgers
Indiana by 18.8 (93%)
#10 BYUatTCU
BYU by 3.7 (61%)

The full slate

59 games, in kickoff order.

Western KYatNew Mexico St
New Mexico St by 4.1 (62%)
North TexasatTulsa
North Texas by 6.0 (68%)
PittatVirginia Tech
Pitt by 4.7 (64%)
LibertyatDelaware
Liberty by 4.3 (63%)
Penn StateatNorthwestern
Northwestern by 0.3 (51%)
MemphisatCharlotte
Memphis by 18.3 (92%)
#3 Notre DameatNorth Carolina
Notre Dame by 19.2 (93%)
#7 Alabamaat#16 Mississippi St
Alabama by 9.3 (76%)
UCFat#20 Houston
Houston by 6.3 (69%)
Boston Collegeat#21 SMU
SMU by 13.9 (86%)
MTSUatKansas
Kansas by 16.3 (90%)
West VirginiaatIowa State
Iowa State by 6.5 (69%)
StanfordatWake Forest
Wake Forest by 15.3 (88%)
SyracuseatUConn
UConn by 3.5 (61%)
MichiganatMinnesota
Michigan by 1.1 (54%)
NavyatAir Force
Air Force by 0.7 (52%)
Michigan StatWisconsin
Wisconsin by 7.4 (72%)
Vanderbiltat#2 Georgia
Georgia by 13.5 (85%)
W MichiganatBuffalo
W Michigan by 9.1 (76%)
ToledoatBall State
Toledo by 15.4 (88%)
#5 Ohio Stateat#14 Iowa
Ohio State by 8.7 (75%)
Auburnat#17 Tennessee
Tennessee by 6.4 (69%)
CaliforniaatUNLV
UNLV by 4.0 (62%)
LouisvilleatNC State
Louisville by 0.5 (51%)
VirginiaatFlorida St
Florida St by 3.9 (62%)
SamfordatUAB
UAB by 21.0 (95%)
WyomingatN Dakota St
N Dakota St by 20.7 (94%)
AkronatC Michigan
C Michigan by 8.7 (75%)
E MichiganatUMass
E Michigan by 1.2 (54%)
OhioatKent State
Ohio by 5.2 (66%)
Bowling GreenatMiami OH
Miami OH by 10.1 (78%)
Old DominionatGeorgia St
Georgia St by 4.2 (63%)
MarshallatJames Madison
James Madison by 20.6 (94%)
#8 Floridaat#25 Missouri
Missouri by 4.9 (65%)
MarylandatNebraska
Nebraska by 11.5 (81%)
UTEPatNew Mexico
New Mexico by 22.1 (96%)
#24 KentuckyatSouth Carolina
South Carolina by 1.9 (56%)
PurdueatIllinois
Illinois by 6.8 (70%)
Oregon StatColorado St
Oregon St by 4.3 (63%)
Texas SouthernatFAU
FAU by 26.7 (98%)
#10 BYUatTCU
BYU by 3.7 (61%)
ArkansasatTexas A&M
Texas A&M by 13.9 (86%)
UTSAatRice
UTSA by 7.2 (71%)
GA SouthernatCoastal
GA Southern by 0.9 (53%)
UL MonroeatSouth Alabama
South Alabama by 12.6 (83%)
#4 MiamiatClemson
Miami by 11.8 (82%)
#12 Texas TechatColorado
Texas Tech by 15.4 (88%)
Washingtonat#18 USC
USC by 7.9 (73%)
Utah Stateat#22 Boise St
Boise St by 13.6 (85%)
TempleatSouth Florida
South Florida by 9.2 (76%)
ArmyatLouisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech by 1.2 (54%)
McNeeseat#11 LSU
LSU by 41.6 (99%)
#6 IndianaatRutgers
Indiana by 18.8 (93%)
Arkansas StatLouisiana
Louisiana by 4.1 (62%)
Fresno StatWashington St
Fresno St by 3.8 (62%)
BayloratArizona St
Baylor by 2.9 (59%)
Texas StatSan Diego St
San Diego St by 1.7 (55%)
CincinnatiatArizona
Arizona by 7.8 (73%)
San José StatHawai'i
Hawai'i by 3.2 (60%)

How this works

Ratings are opponent-adjusted from 2026 results and converted to a margin with a home-field term. Probabilities use a spread fitted on out-of-sample predictions, the same conversion used everywhere else on this site.

Games involving a team outside the FBS pool use the ratings engine's FCS constant rather than a real rating, and are excluded from the disagreement list — a large gap there reflects not knowing the opponent, not a genuine difference of opinion.

Lines come from ESPN's public feed and move through the week. Voluntary Takes is an independent fan site and takes no position on any wager.