Week 10 · 2026

What the model says about week 10

Every FBS game on the slate, with a projected margin from opponent-adjusted ratings — and, where a line exists, how far that sits from the betting market.

Tennessee's game

#24 Kentuckyat#17 Tennessee

TBD

Tennessee by 8.2

Model

74%

To win

—

Market

Ranked teams this week

#1 Texasat#25 Missouri
Texas by 5.7 (67%)
#2 Georgiaat#9 Ole Miss
Georgia by 1.7 (55%)
#4 Miamiat#3 Notre Dame
Notre Dame by 7.1 (71%)
#15 Oregonat#5 Ohio State
Ohio State by 7.9 (73%)
#7 Alabamaat#11 LSU
Alabama by 1.1 (53%)
#10 BYUat#13 Utah
Utah by 6.2 (68%)
#24 Kentuckyat#17 Tennessee
Tennessee by 8.2 (74%)
Oklahomaat#8 Florida
Florida by 4.8 (64%)

The full slate

63 games, in kickoff order.

OhioatAkron
Ohio by 6.2 (68%)
BuffaloatMiami OH
Miami OH by 13.6 (85%)
Ball StateatUMass
UMass by 7.0 (71%)
C MichiganvsE Michigan
C Michigan by 2.1 (56%)
ToledoatSacramento St
Toledo by 14.0 (86%)
UTSAatFAU
UTSA by 3.6 (61%)
James MadisonatSouthern Miss
James Madison by 13.5 (85%)
Virginia Techat#21 SMU
SMU by 4.3 (63%)
South FloridaatEast Carolina
South Florida by 2.1 (56%)
NebraskaatIllinois
Illinois by 0.9 (53%)
New MexicoatNevada
New Mexico by 11.3 (81%)
TCUatArizona
Arizona by 2.0 (56%)
#1 Texasat#25 Missouri
Texas by 5.7 (67%)
#2 Georgiaat#9 Ole Miss
Georgia by 1.7 (55%)
#15 Oregonat#5 Ohio State
Ohio State by 7.9 (73%)
#7 Alabamaat#11 LSU
Alabama by 1.1 (53%)
Oklahomaat#8 Florida
Florida by 4.8 (64%)
#10 BYUat#13 Utah
Utah by 6.2 (68%)
West Virginiaat#12 Texas Tech
Texas Tech by 14.8 (87%)
#14 IowaatNorthwestern
Northwestern by 0.0 (50%)
Vanderbiltat#16 Mississippi St
Mississippi St by 5.5 (66%)
#24 Kentuckyat#17 Tennessee
Tennessee by 8.2 (74%)
#19 Oklahoma StatKansas St
Kansas St by 8.8 (75%)
Cincinnatiat#20 Houston
Houston by 5.0 (65%)
#23 UCLAatMinnesota
UCLA by 3.3 (60%)
ArkansasatAuburn
Auburn by 9.2 (76%)
Texas A&MatSouth Carolina
Texas A&M by 3.3 (60%)
UCFatKansas
UCF by 2.5 (58%)
ColoradoatArizona St
Arizona St by 7.7 (72%)
Iowa StateatBaylor
Baylor by 1.7 (55%)
ClemsonatSyracuse
Clemson by 5.6 (67%)
DukeatNC State
Duke by 1.8 (56%)
LouisvilleatGeorgia Tech
Louisville by 3.7 (61%)
Florida StatBoston College
Florida St by 7.2 (71%)
MerrimackatWake Forest
Wake Forest by 33.9 (99%)
Michigan StatMichigan
Michigan by 7.5 (72%)
MarylandatPurdue
Maryland by 0.7 (52%)
Penn StateatWashington
Penn State by 1.3 (54%)
RutgersatWisconsin
Wisconsin by 7.6 (72%)
CharlotteatUAB
UAB by 10.2 (78%)
RiceatNorth Texas
North Texas by 15.8 (89%)
TulsaatTulane
Tulane by 6.7 (70%)
Hawai'iatUTEP
Hawai'i by 3.9 (62%)
N IllinoisatSan José St
San José St by 8.6 (75%)
Georgia StatApp State
App State by 1.7 (55%)
Old DominionatCoastal
Old Dominion by 2.2 (57%)
MarshallatGA Southern
GA Southern by 5.6 (67%)
South AlabamaatLouisiana
Louisiana by 5.6 (67%)
Louisiana TechatTroy
Louisiana Tech by 1.9 (56%)
North CarolinaatUConn
UConn by 3.6 (61%)
UL MonroeatArkansas St
Arkansas St by 11.4 (81%)
DelawareatKennesaw St
Kennesaw St by 5.5 (66%)
TempleatNavy
Navy by 6.2 (68%)
Western KYatMTSU
MTSU by 2.3 (57%)
Missouri StatFIU
FIU by 4.6 (64%)
LibertyatNew Mexico St
Liberty by 5.0 (65%)
#22 Boise StatColorado St
Boise St by 8.3 (74%)
Sam HoustonatJax State
Jax State by 10.1 (78%)
#4 Miamiat#3 Notre Dame
Notre Dame by 7.1 (71%)
Air ForceatArmy
Army by 5.4 (66%)
Fresno StatUtah State
Fresno St by 5.5 (66%)
Texas StatOregon St
Texas St by 1.7 (55%)
WyomingatUNLV
UNLV by 11.1 (80%)

How this works

Ratings are opponent-adjusted from 2026 results and converted to a margin with a home-field term. Probabilities use a spread fitted on out-of-sample predictions, the same conversion used everywhere else on this site.

Games involving a team outside the FBS pool use the ratings engine's FCS constant rather than a real rating, and are excluded from the disagreement list — a large gap there reflects not knowing the opponent, not a genuine difference of opinion.

Lines come from ESPN's public feed and move through the week. Voluntary Takes is an independent fan site and takes no position on any wager.