Week 11 · 2026
What the model says about week 11
Every FBS game on the slate, with a projected margin from opponent-adjusted ratings — and, where a line exists, how far that sits from the betting market.
Tennessee's game
#17 Tennesseeat
Texas A&M
TBD
Texas A&M by 2.9
Model
59%
To win
—
Market
Ranked teams this week
#1 Texasat
#11 LSULSU by 0.4 (51%)
#25 Missouriat
#2 GeorgiaGeorgia by 10.6 (79%)
#18 USCat
#6 IndianaIndiana by 9.1 (76%)
#8 Floridaat
#24 KentuckyFlorida by 3.9 (62%)
#12 Texas Techat
#19 Oklahoma StTexas Tech by 11.1 (80%)
Boston Collegeat
#3 Notre DameNotre Dame by 29.1 (99%)
Dukeat
#4 MiamiMiami by 11.6 (81%)
Northwesternat
#5 Ohio StateOhio State by 14.9 (87%)
The full slate
67 games, in kickoff order.
W Michiganat
AkronW Michigan by 9.0 (75%)
Kent Stateat
Bowling GreenKent State by 0.9 (53%)
Ohioat
Miami OHMiami OH by 3.0 (59%)
Buffaloat
Ball StateBall State by 2.6 (58%)
Sacramento Stat
C MichiganC Michigan by 5.9 (68%)
UMassat
ToledoToledo by 16.1 (89%)
Memphisat
South FloridaSouth Florida by 6.2 (68%)
Louisianaat
UL MonroeLouisiana by 9.5 (77%)
Florida Stat
PittPitt by 9.0 (76%)
Illinoisat
#23 UCLAUCLA by 5.0 (65%)
#20 Houstonat
ColoradoHouston by 7.5 (72%)
#1 Texasat
#11 LSULSU by 0.4 (51%)
#25 Missouriat
#2 GeorgiaGeorgia by 10.6 (79%)
Dukeat
#4 MiamiMiami by 11.6 (81%)
Northwesternat
#5 Ohio StateOhio State by 14.9 (87%)
#18 USCat
#6 IndianaIndiana by 9.1 (76%)
#7 Alabamaat
VanderbiltAlabama by 8.6 (75%)
#8 Floridaat
#24 KentuckyFlorida by 3.9 (62%)
#9 Ole Missat
OklahomaOle Miss by 0.2 (51%)
Baylorat
#10 BYUBYU by 9.9 (78%)
#12 Texas Techat
#19 Oklahoma StTexas Tech by 11.1 (80%)
#13 Utahat
ArizonaUtah by 7.1 (71%)
Purdueat
#14 IowaIowa by 13.8 (86%)
Michiganat
#15 OregonOregon by 8.6 (75%)
Auburnat
#16 Mississippi StMississippi St by 3.9 (62%)
#17 Tennesseeat
Texas A&MTexas A&M by 2.9 (59%)
Wake Forestat
#21 SMUSMU by 3.5 (61%)
Arizona Stat
UCFUCF by 5.3 (66%)
Cincinnatiat
Iowa StateIowa State by 2.6 (58%)
Kansasat
West VirginiaWest Virginia by 3.4 (60%)
Kansas Stat
TCUTCU by 2.2 (57%)
South Carolinaat
ArkansasSouth Carolina by 1.3 (54%)
Californiaat
VirginiaVirginia by 12.4 (83%)
Georgia Techat
ClemsonClemson by 8.1 (73%)
Louisvilleat
North CarolinaLouisville by 4.8 (64%)
Stanfordat
Virginia TechVirginia Tech by 10.1 (78%)
Syracuseat
NC StateNC State by 8.3 (74%)
Wisconsinat
MarylandWisconsin by 0.3 (51%)
Washingtonat
Michigan StMichigan St by 0.6 (52%)
Minnesotaat
Penn StatePenn State by 8.5 (74%)
Nebraskaat
RutgersNebraska by 5.9 (67%)
East Carolinaat
CharlotteEast Carolina by 14.0 (86%)
FAUat
TulsaTulsa by 2.6 (58%)
North Texasat
UTSAUTSA by 0.3 (51%)
Tulaneat
RiceTulane by 6.8 (70%)
UABat
TempleTemple by 6.7 (70%)
Nevadaat
N IllinoisNevada by 3.0 (59%)
Wyomingat
UTEPWyoming by 0.2 (50%)
App Stateat
MarshallApp State by 0.2 (51%)
Arkansas Stat
CoastalCoastal by 1.8 (56%)
GA Southernat
Georgia StGeorgia St by 2.9 (59%)
Southern Missat
Louisiana TechLouisiana Tech by 7.8 (72%)
Troyat
South AlabamaSouth Alabama by 2.2 (57%)
James Madisonat
UConnJames Madison by 7.3 (71%)
Kennesaw Stat
Sam HoustonKennesaw St by 4.3 (63%)
New Mexico Stat
Missouri StMissouri St by 2.6 (58%)
FIUat
DelawareDelaware by 1.5 (54%)
Boston Collegeat
#3 Notre DameNotre Dame by 29.1 (99%)
Jax Stateat
Western KYJax State by 3.5 (61%)
MTSUat
LibertyLiberty by 11.1 (80%)
Fresno Stat
Texas StTexas St by 1.0 (53%)
Oregon Stat
#22 Boise StBoise St by 11.1 (80%)
San José Stat
Air ForceAir Force by 8.6 (75%)
UNLVat
New MexicoNew Mexico by 8.2 (74%)
Utah Stateat
San Diego StSan Diego St by 7.8 (73%)
Colorado Stat
Washington StWashington St by 6.3 (69%)
N Dakota Stat
Hawai'iN Dakota St by 11.3 (81%)
How this works
Ratings are opponent-adjusted from 2026 results and converted to a margin with a home-field term. Probabilities use a spread fitted on out-of-sample predictions, the same conversion used everywhere else on this site.
Games involving a team outside the FBS pool use the ratings engine's FCS constant rather than a real rating, and are excluded from the disagreement list — a large gap there reflects not knowing the opponent, not a genuine difference of opinion.
Lines come from ESPN's public feed and move through the week. Voluntary Takes is an independent fan site and takes no position on any wager.