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Week 11 · 2026

What the model says about week 11

Every FBS game on the slate, with a projected margin from opponent-adjusted ratings — and, where a line exists, how far that sits from the betting market.

Tennessee's game

#17 TennesseeatTexas A&M

TBD

Texas A&M by 2.9

Model

59%

To win

—

Market

Ranked teams this week

  • #1 Texasat#11 LSU

    LSU by 0.4 (51%)

  • #25 Missouriat#2 Georgia

    Georgia by 10.6 (79%)

  • #18 USCat#6 Indiana

    Indiana by 9.1 (76%)

  • #8 Floridaat#24 Kentucky

    Florida by 3.9 (62%)

  • #12 Texas Techat#19 Oklahoma St

    Texas Tech by 11.1 (80%)

  • Boston Collegeat#3 Notre Dame

    Notre Dame by 29.1 (99%)

  • Dukeat#4 Miami

    Miami by 11.6 (81%)

  • Northwesternat#5 Ohio State

    Ohio State by 14.9 (87%)

The full slate

67 games, in kickoff order.

  • W MichiganatAkron

    W Michigan by 9.0 (75%)

  • Kent StateatBowling Green

    Kent State by 0.9 (53%)

  • OhioatMiami OH

    Miami OH by 3.0 (59%)

  • BuffaloatBall State

    Ball State by 2.6 (58%)

  • Sacramento StatC Michigan

    C Michigan by 5.9 (68%)

  • UMassatToledo

    Toledo by 16.1 (89%)

  • MemphisatSouth Florida

    South Florida by 6.2 (68%)

  • LouisianaatUL Monroe

    Louisiana by 9.5 (77%)

  • Florida StatPitt

    Pitt by 9.0 (76%)

  • Illinoisat#23 UCLA

    UCLA by 5.0 (65%)

  • #20 HoustonatColorado

    Houston by 7.5 (72%)

  • #1 Texasat#11 LSU

    LSU by 0.4 (51%)

  • #25 Missouriat#2 Georgia

    Georgia by 10.6 (79%)

  • Dukeat#4 Miami

    Miami by 11.6 (81%)

  • Northwesternat#5 Ohio State

    Ohio State by 14.9 (87%)

  • #18 USCat#6 Indiana

    Indiana by 9.1 (76%)

  • #7 AlabamaatVanderbilt

    Alabama by 8.6 (75%)

  • #8 Floridaat#24 Kentucky

    Florida by 3.9 (62%)

  • #9 Ole MissatOklahoma

    Ole Miss by 0.2 (51%)

  • Baylorat#10 BYU

    BYU by 9.9 (78%)

  • #12 Texas Techat#19 Oklahoma St

    Texas Tech by 11.1 (80%)

  • #13 UtahatArizona

    Utah by 7.1 (71%)

  • Purdueat#14 Iowa

    Iowa by 13.8 (86%)

  • Michiganat#15 Oregon

    Oregon by 8.6 (75%)

  • Auburnat#16 Mississippi St

    Mississippi St by 3.9 (62%)

  • #17 TennesseeatTexas A&M

    Texas A&M by 2.9 (59%)

  • Wake Forestat#21 SMU

    SMU by 3.5 (61%)

  • Arizona StatUCF

    UCF by 5.3 (66%)

  • CincinnatiatIowa State

    Iowa State by 2.6 (58%)

  • KansasatWest Virginia

    West Virginia by 3.4 (60%)

  • Kansas StatTCU

    TCU by 2.2 (57%)

  • South CarolinaatArkansas

    South Carolina by 1.3 (54%)

  • CaliforniaatVirginia

    Virginia by 12.4 (83%)

  • Georgia TechatClemson

    Clemson by 8.1 (73%)

  • LouisvilleatNorth Carolina

    Louisville by 4.8 (64%)

  • StanfordatVirginia Tech

    Virginia Tech by 10.1 (78%)

  • SyracuseatNC State

    NC State by 8.3 (74%)

  • WisconsinatMaryland

    Wisconsin by 0.3 (51%)

  • WashingtonatMichigan St

    Michigan St by 0.6 (52%)

  • MinnesotaatPenn State

    Penn State by 8.5 (74%)

  • NebraskaatRutgers

    Nebraska by 5.9 (67%)

  • East CarolinaatCharlotte

    East Carolina by 14.0 (86%)

  • FAUatTulsa

    Tulsa by 2.6 (58%)

  • North TexasatUTSA

    UTSA by 0.3 (51%)

  • TulaneatRice

    Tulane by 6.8 (70%)

  • UABatTemple

    Temple by 6.7 (70%)

  • NevadaatN Illinois

    Nevada by 3.0 (59%)

  • WyomingatUTEP

    Wyoming by 0.2 (50%)

  • App StateatMarshall

    App State by 0.2 (51%)

  • Arkansas StatCoastal

    Coastal by 1.8 (56%)

  • GA SouthernatGeorgia St

    Georgia St by 2.9 (59%)

  • Southern MissatLouisiana Tech

    Louisiana Tech by 7.8 (72%)

  • TroyatSouth Alabama

    South Alabama by 2.2 (57%)

  • James MadisonatUConn

    James Madison by 7.3 (71%)

  • Kennesaw StatSam Houston

    Kennesaw St by 4.3 (63%)

  • New Mexico StatMissouri St

    Missouri St by 2.6 (58%)

  • FIUatDelaware

    Delaware by 1.5 (54%)

  • Boston Collegeat#3 Notre Dame

    Notre Dame by 29.1 (99%)

  • Jax StateatWestern KY

    Jax State by 3.5 (61%)

  • MTSUatLiberty

    Liberty by 11.1 (80%)

  • Fresno StatTexas St

    Texas St by 1.0 (53%)

  • Oregon Stat#22 Boise St

    Boise St by 11.1 (80%)

  • San José StatAir Force

    Air Force by 8.6 (75%)

  • UNLVatNew Mexico

    New Mexico by 8.2 (74%)

  • Utah StateatSan Diego St

    San Diego St by 7.8 (73%)

  • Colorado StatWashington St

    Washington St by 6.3 (69%)

  • N Dakota StatHawai'i

    N Dakota St by 11.3 (81%)

How this works

Ratings are opponent-adjusted from 2026 results and converted to a margin with a home-field term. Probabilities use a spread fitted on out-of-sample predictions, the same conversion used everywhere else on this site.

Games involving a team outside the FBS pool use the ratings engine's FCS constant rather than a real rating, and are excluded from the disagreement list — a large gap there reflects not knowing the opponent, not a genuine difference of opinion.

Lines come from ESPN's public feed and move through the week. Voluntary Takes is an independent fan site and takes no position on any wager.