Week 3 · 2026

What the model says about week 3

Every FBS game on the slate, with a projected margin from opponent-adjusted ratings — and, where a line exists, how far that sits from the betting market.

Tennessee's game

Kennesaw Stat#15 Tennessee

Final · SECN+

Tennessee by 16.1

Model

89%

To win

—

Market

Ranked teams this week

#7 LSUat#8 Ole Miss
Ole Miss by 0.1 (50%)
#22 Houstonat#13 Texas Tech
Texas Tech by 8.1 (73%)
#16 SMUat#23 Louisville
Louisville by 2.8 (58%)
UTSAat#1 Texas
Texas by 15.5 (88%)
#2 GeorgiaatArkansas
Georgia by 13.6 (85%)
Michigan Stat#3 Notre Dame
Notre Dame by 21.7 (95%)
Western KYat#4 Indiana
Indiana by 29.3 (99%)
#5 MiamiatWake Forest
Miami by 8.9 (75%)

The full slate

75 games, in kickoff order.

SyracuseatPitt
Pitt by 14.9 (87%)
#5 MiamiatWake Forest
Miami by 8.9 (75%)
#22 Houstonat#13 Texas Tech
Texas Tech by 8.1 (73%)
Portland Stat#21 Oregon
Oregon by 43.1 (99%)
CoastalatDelaware
Delaware by 2.3 (57%)
#2 GeorgiaatArkansas
Georgia by 13.6 (85%)
Kent Stateat#6 Ohio State
Ohio State by 32.4 (99%)
Buffaloat#14 Penn State
Penn State by 24.4 (97%)
TulaneatKansas St
Kansas St by 7.0 (70%)
Bowling GreenatIowa State
Iowa State by 19.4 (93%)
Arizona StvsKansas
Kansas by 2.4 (57%)
MerceratGeorgia Tech
Georgia Tech by 29.0 (99%)
North CarolinaatClemson
Clemson by 6.7 (70%)
AkronatMinnesota
Minnesota by 17.8 (91%)
North TexasatTexas St
North Texas by 2.5 (58%)
E MichiganatWisconsin
Wisconsin by 16.5 (90%)
NC StateatVanderbilt
Vanderbilt by 4.3 (63%)
WyomingatC Michigan
C Michigan by 6.3 (69%)
MaineatBoston College
Boston College by 23.4 (96%)
S IllinoisatIllinois
Illinois by 33.6 (99%)
TempleatToledo
Toledo by 9.5 (77%)
#12 USCatRutgers
USC by 10.9 (80%)
#16 SMUat#23 Louisville
Louisville by 2.8 (58%)
Utah Stateat#17 Utah
Utah by 22.6 (96%)
UTEPat#19 Michigan
Michigan by 21.9 (95%)
Miami OHatCincinnati
Cincinnati by 9.0 (76%)
WagneratCalifornia
California by 27.6 (98%)
DuquesneatWashington St
Washington St by 26.8 (98%)
StonehillatUMass
UMass by 18.8 (93%)
Kentuckyat#9 Texas A&M
Texas A&M by 7.7 (72%)
Western KYat#4 Indiana
Indiana by 29.3 (99%)
Northern Iowaat#18 Iowa
Iowa by 37.8 (99%)
StanfordatDuke
Duke by 15.2 (88%)
Ball StateatLiberty
Liberty by 14.9 (87%)
Louisiana TechatBaylor
Baylor by 8.9 (75%)
SE LouisianaatUL Monroe
UL Monroe by 14.2 (86%)
Florida Stat#10 Alabama
Alabama by 15.2 (88%)
Mississippi StatSouth Carolina
Mississippi St by 1.0 (53%)
East CarolinaatOld Dominion
East Carolina by 2.4 (57%)
FIUatFAU
FAU by 5.2 (65%)
MarshallatMissouri St
Missouri St by 3.5 (61%)
Troyat#20 Missouri
Missouri by 16.4 (90%)
FloridaatAuburn
Auburn by 0.8 (52%)
Georgia StatUCF
UCF by 9.3 (76%)
Murray StatOklahoma St
Oklahoma St by 28.8 (99%)
UConnatSouthern Miss
UConn by 4.3 (63%)
UT MartinatMemphis
Memphis by 33.1 (99%)
W MichiganatRice
W Michigan by 3.9 (62%)
Delaware StatSouth Florida
South Florida by 34.1 (99%)
NevadaatMTSU
MTSU by 1.0 (53%)
OhioatSouth Alabama
Ohio by 0.1 (50%)
GA SouthernatJax State
Jax State by 3.2 (60%)
NichollsatSam Houston
Sam Houston by 19.9 (94%)
North DakotaatNebraska
Nebraska by 38.5 (99%)
E WashingtonatWashington
Washington by 34.4 (99%)
Michigan Stat#3 Notre Dame
Notre Dame by 21.7 (95%)
#7 LSUat#8 Ole Miss
Ole Miss by 0.1 (50%)
New Mexicoat#24 Oklahoma
Oklahoma by 4.2 (63%)
West Virginiavs#25 Virginia
Virginia by 5.7 (67%)
ColoradoatNorthwestern
Northwestern by 13.2 (85%)
Virginia TechatMaryland
Virginia Tech by 0.4 (51%)
Kennesaw Stat#15 Tennessee
Tennessee by 16.1 (89%)
UTSAat#1 Texas
Texas by 15.5 (88%)
Arkansas StatTCU
TCU by 12.6 (83%)
East Texas A&MatTulsa
Tulsa by 26.4 (98%)
UABatLouisiana
Louisiana by 7.7 (72%)
#11 BYUatColorado St
BYU by 15.9 (89%)
CharlotteatApp State
App State by 14.4 (87%)
South DakotaatBoise St
Boise St by 35.1 (99%)
James MadisonatSan Diego St
James Madison by 7.5 (72%)
N IllinoisatArizona
Arizona by 23.5 (96%)
N Dakota StatSacramento St
N Dakota St by 17.2 (91%)
PurdueatUCLA
UCLA by 11.0 (80%)
MontanaatOregon St
Oregon St by 29.3 (99%)
Fresno StatSan José St
Fresno St by 8.5 (74%)

How this works

Ratings are opponent-adjusted from 2026 results and converted to a margin with a home-field term. Probabilities use a spread fitted on out-of-sample predictions, the same conversion used everywhere else on this site.

Games involving a team outside the FBS pool use the ratings engine's FCS constant rather than a real rating, and are excluded from the disagreement list — a large gap there reflects not knowing the opponent, not a genuine difference of opinion.

Lines come from ESPN's public feed and move through the week. Voluntary Takes is an independent fan site and takes no position on any wager.